MANILA, Philippines – Karding, which was initially projected to remain a tropical depression throughout its stay inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), strengthened into a tropical storm at 2 pm on Thursday, September 22.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 pm bulletin that Karding now has maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour from the previous 45 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 80 km/h from 55 km/h.

Karding is seen to intensify further as it moves over the Philippine Sea, and could become a severe tropical storm before it hits land.

By mid-afternoon on Thursday, the tropical storm was located 1,320 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, slowly moving north northwest after earlier heading east.

PAGASA said Karding may begin moving west, or toward Philippine landmass, by Thursday evening at the latest.

It is expected to keep heading west while accelerating until it makes landfall in the east coast of Isabela or Cagayan on Sunday, September 25.

Then it would cross Northern Luzon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Monday, September 26.

PAGASA warned that Karding may bring heavy rain to Northern Luzon and Central Luzon starting late Saturday, September 24, or Sunday morning.

Isolated to scattered floods and landslides are possible.

Tropical cyclone wind signals are also likely to be raised for Northern Luzon and parts of Central Luzon.

The weather bureau said areas in the eastern parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon could be placed under Signal No. 1 as early as Friday evening, September 23, or early Saturday morning.

If Karding does reach severe tropical storm status, the highest possible wind signal would be Signal No. 3.

Karding may also cause moderate to rough seas in the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon beginning Sunday. 

Waves will be 1.2 to 3.8 meters high, which may be risky for small vessels.

Karding is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022.

It is also the third tropical cyclone for September, after Typhoon Inday (Muifa) and Super Typhoon Josie (Nanmadol). Inday and Josie did not make landfall in the country.

PAGASA expects 7 to 11 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from September 2022 to February 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• September 2022 – 2 or 3
• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com