MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Paeng (Nalgae) maintained its strength on Thursday afternoon, October 27, while slowly moving over the Philippine Sea.

Paeng continues to have maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 80 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 pm on Thursday.

The tropical storm was last spotted 510 kilometers east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, heading southwest.

PAGASA said Paeng is expected to keep moving southwest or west southwest on Thursday evening, before turning west northwest as it moves toward Central Luzon or Southern Luzon until Sunday, October 30.

Based on its latest forecast track, the tropical storm could pass close to Catanduanes on Saturday, October 29, then make landfall in Aurora or Quezon on Sunday.

PAGASA noted, however, that Paeng’s forecast track has been shifting southward. As a result, the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of landfall in the eastern part of Bicol.

Paeng may also intensify into a severe tropical storm on Friday, October 28, and into a typhoon by Saturday.

“The occurrence of rapid intensification in the next 72 hours is not ruled out,” PAGASA said.

Rain from Paeng is still expected to begin on Friday, though the trough or extension of the tropical storm and the shear line have been affecting parts of the country in the past days.

Here is PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for Paeng:

Early Friday morning to evening, October 28

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Bicol
• Eastern Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Mimaropa
• Quezon
• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Apayao
• Aurora
• rest of Visayas
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Northern Mindanao
• Caraga

Friday evening, October 28, to Saturday, October 29

Heavy to torrential rain

• Bicol
• Northern Samar
• Marinduque
• Quezon

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Metro Manila
• rest of Calabarzon
• Aurora
• Bulacan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• eastern part of Isabela
• eastern part of Cagayan
• rest of Eastern Visayas
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• rest of Cagayan Valley
• rest of Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• mainland Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are expected.

The weather bureau also noted that areas covered by the rainfall forecast may be updated in its next bulletins “should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of Paeng.”

As of 5 pm on Thursday, Signal No. 1 has been raised in more areas in anticipation of strong winds from Paeng:

• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Saglay, San Jose, Tigaon, Ocampo, Iriga City, Buhi, Nabua, Bato, Balatan, Bula, Baao, Pili, Calabanga, Bombon, Magarao, Naga City, Milaor, Minalabac, San Fernando, Gainza, Camaligan, Canaman)
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao Island
• Burias Island
• Eastern Samar
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo)

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 4 since Paeng is likely to become a typhoon.

Even before the arrival of tropical cyclone winds, however, strong winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan have hit parts of Luzon. These areas will still be affected:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern part of mainland Cagayan
• northern part of Apayao
• northern part of Ilocos Norte
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Bicol

Meanwhile, PAGASA issued a storm surge advisory at 2 pm on Thursday, warning of a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges up to 2 meters high. Storm surges may cause floods in the low-lying coastal areas of Catanduanes and some coastal areas of Camarines Sur.

The weather bureau also issued a new gale warning at 5 pm on Thursday. Rough to very rough seas are seen in these seaboards:

• seaboards of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora) – waves 2.8 to 5.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas (Camarines Norte, northern coast of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, eastern coast of Albay, eastern coast of Sorsogon, northern and eastern coasts of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The surge of the northeast monsoon and Paeng may also trigger moderate to rough seas in the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Waves could be 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, which may be risky for small vessels.

Paeng is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the fourth for October. PAGASA earlier said there may be up to four tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com