MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Paeng (Nalgae) maintained its strength as it approached Bicol’s Lagonoy Gulf late Friday evening, October 28.

In a briefing past 11 pm on Friday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Paeng was last spotted over the coastal waters of Rapu-Rapu, Albay.

The tropical storm continues to move west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h). It may maintain that direction until Sunday, October 30.

PAGASA said Paeng was projected to make landfall in the Albay-Camarines Sur area or in Catanduanes on Friday evening or early Saturday morning, October 29.

On Saturday, it might cross the Bicol peninsula until early afternoon then the Calabarzon-Metro Manila area early afternoon to evening. It could then emerge over Manila Bay and briefly pass very close to or over Bataan between late Saturday evening and early Sunday morning.

This is the first time that PAGASA has mentioned the possibility of direct passage over Calabarzon and Metro Manila. But the weather bureau noted that the tropical storm’s track “may still shift slightly northward or southward.”

Paeng continued to have maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h late Friday evening.

PAGASA said Paeng may still strengthen into a severe tropical storm before it makes landfall in Bicol, but it could weaken back into a tropical storm during or after its passage over Luzon due to “frictional effects.”

The weather bureau stressed that widespread floods and landslides are expected as Paeng continues to trigger massive rainfall.

Here is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast as of 11 pm on Friday:

Until Saturday morning, October 29

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Bicol
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Western Visayas
• Samar
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Metro Manila
• rest of Calabarzon
• Aurora
• Bulacan
• Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Northern Samar
• Negros Oriental
• Cebu
• rest of Eastern Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• rest of Visayas

Saturday morning to evening, October 29

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• Marinduque
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Bataan
• Romblon
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Ilocos Region
• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of Bicol
• rest of Visayas

Saturday evening, October 29, to Sunday morning, October 30

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Rizal
• Laguna
• Cavite
• Batangas

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Marinduque
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Central Luzon
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Ilocos Region
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Romblon
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands

As for winds, the following areas are under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Friday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island
• Camarines Sur
• Camarines Norte
• Marinduque
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Bulacan
• southern part of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora)
• central and southern parts of Nueva Ecija (Gapan City, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Rizal, San Isidro, Laur, Zaragoza, Llanera, Aliaga, Palayan City, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Quezon, San Antonio, General Tinio, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Jaen, Licab, Bongabon, Cabiao, Talavera)
• central and southern parts of Tarlac (La Paz, Tarlac City, San Jose, Gerona, Mayantoc, Pura, Bamban, Capas, Santa Ignacia, Victoria, Concepcion)
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• central and southern parts of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, Subic, Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, San Felipe)
• northern and central parts of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas)
• northern and central parts of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands
• Romblon
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami, Pastrana, Jaro, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga, Tabontabon, Tolosa)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• central and southern parts of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig)
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Mountain Province
• southern part of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia)
• La Union
• rest of Aurora
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• rest of Zambales
• Pangasinan
• rest of Tarlac
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Occidental Mindoro
• northern part of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands
• Bohol
• Negros Occidental
• Negros Oriental
• Guimaras
• Aklan
• Antique
• Capiz
• Iloilo
• Siquijor
• rest of Leyte
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• northern part of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, Tandag City, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag, San Agustin, Lianga, Barobo)
• Agusan del Norte
• northeastern part of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, Esperanza, Bayugan City, Prosperidad)
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 3 since Paeng could intensify into a severe tropical storm.

Meanwhile, the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan enhanced by Paeng is bringing strong winds to these areas:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan
• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Apayao

PAGASA also warned that there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges up to 2 meters high, which may cause floods in the “low-lying and exposed coastal areas” of the following:

• Bicol
• Marinduque
• eastern part of Batangas
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Aurora
• Northern Samar
• northern part of Eastern Samar

For coastal waters, this gale warning issued at 5 pm on Friday due to Paeng and the northeast monsoon is still in effect:

• eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas (Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, southern coast of Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran) – very rough to high seas, waves 4.5 to 6.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon (eastern coast of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora) – very rough seas, waves 4.5 to 6 meters high
• northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, northern coast of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales) – rough to very rough seas, waves 3.1 to 5.5 meters high
• eastern seaboard of Mindanao (eastern coast of Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, eastern coast of Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, eastern coast of Davao Oriental) – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

“Rough to high sea conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside,” PAGASA said.

Paeng is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the fourth for October. PAGASA earlier said there may be up to four tropical cyclones during the month.

In Friday’s late-night briefing, PAGASA Weather Specialist Benison Estareja said a low pressure area (LPA) formed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

The LPA was located 1,700 kilometers east of Mindanao late Friday evening and may enter PAR on Monday, October 31.

PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of the LPA developing into a tropical depression. Updates are expected in the coming days. – Rappler.com