Typhoon Ulysses (Vamco) started crossing Central Luzon in the early hours of Thursday, November 12, pummeling not just parts of Central Luzon but also Calabarzon and Metro Manila.

Ulysses began to cross Central Luzon after making landfall thrice in the province of Quezon, which is located in the neighboring region of Calabarzon:

1. Patnanungan – 10:30 pm on Wednesday, November 11
2. Burdeos – 11:20 pm on Wednesday, November 11
3. General Nakar – 1:40 am on Thursday, November 12

In a bulletin released past 2 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ulysses is moving west northwest at a slightly faster 20 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 15 km/h.

The typhoon also slightly intensified further. It now has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h from the previous 150 km/h and gustiness of up to 255 km/h from the previous 205 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Within the next 3 hours, the following areas will continue to experience destructive winds and intense to torrential rainfall from Ulysses’ inner rainband-eyewall region:

• central and southern parts of Aurora
• northern part of Quezon including Polillo Island
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Bulacan
• Nueva Ecija

“Moderate to heavy damage to infrastructure and vegetation is expected,” PAGASA warned.

After crossing Central Luzon, Ulysses will emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales on Thursday morning.

PAGASA earlier said the typhoon may be closest to Metro Manila between 4 am and 6 am on Thursday.

This is the state weather bureau’s latest rainfall forecast as of 2 am on Thursday:

Until Thursday noon, November 12

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• Central Luzon
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• eastern part of Isabela

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of mainland Cagayan Valley
• Pangasinan
• Marinduque
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• northern part of Oriental Mindoro
• Camarines Sur

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• Visayas

Between Thursday noon and evening, November 12

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Zambales
• Bataan
• Cavite
• Batangas
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Cordillera Administrative Region
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Babuyan Islands
• Pangasinan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Calamian Islands

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• Western Visayas

Floods, landslides, and lahar flows remain possible. Parts of Bicol were already hit by massive floods on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 2 am on Thursday.

Signal No. 3 (destructive typhoon-force winds)

• southern part of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan)
• southern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur)
• Pangasinan
• Nueva Ecija
• Aurora
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Batangas
• northern and central parts of Quezon (Catanauan, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Lopez, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Mauban, Real, Infanta, General Nakar, Sampaloc, Atimonan, Plaridel, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Tayabas City, Lucban, Sariaya, Candelaria, San Antonio, Tiaong, Dolores) including Polillo Island
• western part of Camarines Norte (Labo, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, Santa Elena)

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale- to storm-force winds)

• central and southern parts of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, San Mateo, Alicia, Angadanan, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon)
• rest of Quirino
• rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• southern part of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Santiago, Banayoyo, Candon City, Galimuyod, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon)
• La Union
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island
• northern part of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
• Marinduque
• rest of Quezon
• rest of Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur

Signal No. 1 (strong breeze to near gale conditions)

• rest of Isabela
• Kalinga
• Abra
• rest of Ilocos Sur
• rest of Occidental Mindoro
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Catanduanes
• central and western parts of Masbate (Mandaon, Balud, Milagros, Mobo, Masbate City, Baleno, Aroroy) including Burias and Ticao Islands

In the rest of Northern Luzon, there are strong breeze to gale-force winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan.

PAGASA said Ulysses could slightly weaken while crossing Central Luzon “due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales mountain ranges.” But it is likely to remain a typhoon.

There remains a high risk of storm surges which “can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation,” according to the state weather bureau.

Up to 3 meters high

• coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Island, and Camarines Norte

Up to 2 meters high

• coastal areas of Isabela, La Union, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern parts of Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon

“Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay,” PAGASA said.

Within the next 24 hours, Ulysses and the surge of the northeast monsoon combined will make travel risky for all types of vessels in certain seaboards.

Rough to very high seas (waves 2.5 to 11 meters high)

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1, 2, and 3
• northern seaboard of Northern Samar

Rough to high seas (waves 3 to 6 meters high)

• remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high)

• western seaboard of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands
• seaboards of Bicol not under tropical cyclone wind signals

Meanwhile, waters are moderate to rough, with waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high in the seaboards below. Small vessels must take precautionary measures.

• eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao
• seaboards of Cuyo Islands
• western seaboard of Panay Island

Ulysses could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning or afternoon, November 13.

Image from PAGASA

Ulysses is the Philippines’ 21st tropical cyclone for 2020 – already above the yearly average of 20. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

For the next 6 months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for tropical cyclones inside PAR:

• November 2020 – 1 to 3
• December 2020 – 2 or 3
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1

Since October, La Niña has been underway, which means there is more rain than usual.

Then in November, the northeast monsoon began, signaling “surges of cold temperatures.”

PAGASA warned that La Niña may enhance the northeast monsoon, which could trigger floods and landslides. – Rappler.com