Jolina (Conson) strengthened further from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm at 5 pm on Monday, September 6, the state weather bureau announced in the evening.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin released past 8 pm that Jolina now has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
It earlier had maximum sustained winds of 75 km and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
Jolina is seen to slightly intensify until Thursday morning, September 9. PAGASA is now saying that it is not ruling out the possibility of Jolina becoming a typhoon.
As of early Monday evening, the severe tropical storm was located 30 kilometers east northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
It is moving west northwest toward Eastern Samar at 15 km/h, slightly slower than its previous speed of 20 km/h.
PAGASA said Jolina will keep moving west northwest or northwest in the next 12 hours.
The severe tropical storm is now expected to make its first landfall in the Eastern Samar-Northern Samar area on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, September 7, and its second landfall in Catanduanes on Tuesday afternoon.
Then it may move parallel to Southern Luzon’s east coast, followed by its third landfall in the eastern part of Central Luzon by Thursday morning. It may slightly weaken due to the rugged terrain there.
For the next 24 hours, this is PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for Jolina:
Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
- Northern Samar
- Eastern Samar
Moderate to heavy rain
- rest of Visayas
Isolated to scattered flash floods and landslides are possible in affected areas.
The list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals was also expanded as of 8 pm on Monday.
Signal No. 2 (strong to gale-force winds)
- Eastern Samar
- eastern part of Northern Samar (Pambujan, Las Navas, Catubig, Laoang, Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig, San Roque, Mondragon, Silvino Lobos, Catarman, Lope de Vega)
- northeastern part of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan, Paranas, Hinabangan, Motiong)
Signal No. 1 (strong winds with occasional gusts)
- Ticao Island
- Camarines Sur
- southeastern part of Camarines Norte (San Vicente, Talisay, Daet, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Basud, Mercedes)
- Southern Leyte
- rest of Samar
- rest of Northern Samar
- Dinagat Islands
- Siargao and Bucas Grande in Surigao del Norte
If Jolina does intensify into a typhoon, the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal to be raised would be Signal No. 3.
Jolina also continues to affect coastal waters.
Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.6 to 4.5 meters high)
Travel risky for small vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor
- seaboards of areas under Signal No. 2
Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)
Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation
- seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1
- eastern seaboards of Mindanao
After crossing Central Luzon on Thursday, Jolina may emerge over the West Philippine Sea by evening of that day.
The severe tropical storm could finally leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday, September 10.
Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor a tropical depression outside PAR.
It was located 1,530 kilometers east of Southern Luzon on Monday afternoon, slowly moving north northwest.
Its maximum sustained winds were at 55 km/h, with gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
PAGASA earlier said this tropical depression may enter PAR on Wednesday morning, September 8, but it is not projected to make landfall. If it enters, it would be given the local name Kiko. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
Jolina is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2021 and the first for September.
For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:
- September – 2 or 3
- October – 2 or 3
- November – 2 or 3
- December – 1 or 2
- January – 0 or 1
- February – 0 or 1
An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021) – Rappler.com