MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Kabayan slowed down while heading for Mindanao late Sunday morning, December 17.

In a briefing past 11 am on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kabayan was located 440 kilometers east of Davao City.

The tropical depression is slowly moving north northwest, from a previous speed of 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

PAGASA said Kabayan may head generally west or west northwest in the next two days, “and is likely to maintain its strength until its initial landfall over Mindanao.”

But the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Kabayan intensifying into a tropical storm before its landfall.

PAGASA provided the following rainfall forecast for Kabayan as of 11 am on Sunday:

Sunday noon, December 17, to Monday noon, December 18

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Monday noon, December 18, to Tuesday noon, December 19

• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Floods and landslides are likely.

In a separate advisory issued at 11 am on Sunday, the weather bureau also warned Bicol to brace for heavy rain from the shear line on Sunday and on Monday, December 18. Floods and landslides are possible in the region, too.

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Meanwhile, the areas in the Visayas and Mindanao listed below remain under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am on Sunday. Strong winds are expected due to Kabayan.

• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Bohol
• Camotes Islands
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Cateel, Boston, Baganga)
• northern part of Davao de Oro (Monkayo, Laak)
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• northern part of Bukidnon (Impasug-ong, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Sumilao, Libona, Baungon, Cabanglasan, Malaybalay City)

PAGASA also said the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will cause gusty conditions on Sunday and Monday in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern parts of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro.

Due to Kabayan and the surge of the northeast monsoon, a gale warning is still in effect for coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao. The weather bureau warned that travel is risky for small vessels.

PAGASA sees Kabayan making landfall in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental on Sunday night or early Monday morning. Then it could “cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over [the] Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea” Monday noon or afternoon.

“Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, Kabayan is forecast to weaken over land and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out – although in such a case, redevelopment may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” the weather bureau said.

Kabayan could then move across the Sulu Sea, south of Cuyo Islands, until early Tuesday morning, December 19. Then it might make another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan by Tuesday morning, before finally emerging over the Philippine Sea by noon or early afternoon that day.

“Afterwards, Kabayan may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea,” PAGASA added.

The weather bureau stressed that “the projected track and intensity of the tropical depression remain subject to change, given its nature and strength.”

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com