Tropical Depression Lannie made landfall two more times early Monday morning, October 4, both in the province of Southern Leyte.

The tropical depression has now made landfall four times on Monday, so far:

1. Bucas Grande Island, Socorro, Surigao del Norte – 4:30 am
2. Cagdianao, Dinagat Islands – 5 am
3. Liloan, Southern Leyte – 7:30 am
4. Padre Burgos, Southern Leyte – 8 am

PAGASA video screenshot

As of 10 am, Lannie was over the coastal waters of Maasin City, Southern Leyte, heading for the Camotes Sea, which is between Eastern Visayas and Central Visayas.

The tropical depression accelerated a bit, moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour from the previous 15 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also said Lannie still has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA updated its rainfall forecast for the tropical depression at 11 am on Monday, with fewer areas seeing rain. In Metro Manila, the weather had started to improve around mid-morning.

But the weather bureau warned that affected areas must stay on alert for scattered floods and landslides.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Visayas
• Mimaropa
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Dinagat Islands

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Calabarzon
• rest of Bicol
• rest of Mindanao

“Huwag tayong kumpiyansa dahil sinabing [tropical] depression lang (Let’s not be complacent just because it is only a tropical depression),” said PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano in a press conference past 11 am on Monday, stressing that Lannie is bringing heavy rain.

Meanwhile, these are the areas under Signal No. 1, where strong winds are being experienced:

• southern part of Masbate (Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Dimasalang, Uson, Mobo, Milagros, Mandaon, Esperanza, Placer, Cawayan, Balud)
• southern part of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Santa Maria, Odiongan, Alcantara, Ferrol, Looc, Santa Fe, San Jose)
• southern part of Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao, Bongabong)
• southern part of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay)
• northern part of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli), including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Capiz
• Aklan
• Antique
• Iloilo
• Guimaras
• Negros Occidental
• northern and central parts of Negros Oriental (Bais City, Mabinay, Bayawan City, Basay, Tanjay City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Vallehermoso, Canlaon City)
• Cebu
• Bohol
• Surigao del Norte
• Dinagat Islands
• northern part of Agusan del Norte (Magallanes, Remedios T. Romualdez, Cabadbaran City, Tubay, Santiago, Jabonga, Kitcharao, Butuan City)
• Camiguin

PAGASA added that “the enhanced easterly flow north of the tropical depression may also bring occasional gusts” to extreme Northern Luzon and the coastal and mountainous areas of the eastern part of Luzon on Monday.

Lannie is also causing moderate to rough seas in the Philippines’ coastal waters on Monday, especially in areas under Signal No. 1. Travel is risky for small vessels.

PAGASA expects Lannie to move over the Visayas until Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, October 5, then emerge over the Sulu Sea and cross the Cuyo archipelago.

The tropical depression could make another landfall in the northern part of Palawan or Calamian Islands on Tuesday morning before exiting landmass toward the West Philippine Sea within a couple of hours.

From late Tuesday to early Thursday, October 7, Lannie will be moving over the West Philippine Sea.

The weather bureau also said Lannie is likely to stay a tropical depression while crossing land, though it may slightly intensify once over the Sulu Sea or the West Philippine Sea. It could strengthen into a tropical storm by early Wednesday morning, October 6, over the West Philippine Sea.

Lannie may leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning.

Outside PAR, it is seen to head for the southern part of China, and may be upgraded into a severe tropical storm by Saturday morning, October 9.

PAGASA

Lannie is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2021. It is also the first tropical cyclone for the month of October, coming right in the middle of the filing of certificates of candidacy for the 2022 elections, which is taking place across the country. The filing of COCs is until Friday, October 8.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:

2021

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1

The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com