Tropical Depression Tonyo left the landmass of Luzon via the province of Occidental Mindoro, just as a low pressure area (LPA) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday, November 8.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 2 pm bulletin on Sunday that Tonyo is already over the coastal waters of Paluan, Occidental Mindoro, or 105 kilometers west of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.

The tropical depression slightly accelerated, now moving west at 30 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 25 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

It is heading for the PAR’s western boundary, where it is forecast to exit on Monday morning, November 9.

Tonyo earlier hit Masbate, Marinduque, and Batangas.

So far, Tonyo still has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 60 km/h. But PAGASA said it might intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Only the northwestern part of Occidental Mindoro remains under Signal No. 1 as of 2 pm on Sunday. This includes the municipalities of Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, and Santa Cruz, as well as Lubang Island.

“Strong breeze to near gale conditions with occasional gusts” will persist while Signal No. 1 stays in effect.

Similar conditions are being experienced in extreme Northern Luzon due to the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan.

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• Ilocos Norte
• Apayao
• northern part of mainland Cagayan

Meanwhile, with Tonyo starting to move away from land, fewer areas are still experiencing rain from the tropical depression.

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Aurora
• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro
• Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands

However, moderate to rough seas due to Tonyo and the easterlies, with waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, will continue in the following seaboards:

• seaboards of northwestern part of Occidental Mindoro
• eastern seaboards of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and northern part of Quezon
• northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes

PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures and “inexperienced mariners” to “avoid navigating in these conditions.”

There are also rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high, due to the northeast monsoon here:

• seaboards of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur
• northern seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

Travel remains risky, particularly for small vessels.

Image from PAGASA

Meanwhile, the LPA that just entered PAR is located 920 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

PAGASA said it may develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

It would be given the local name Ulysses if it becomes a tropical depression. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

It would also be the Philippines’ 21st tropical cyclone for 2020, already above the yearly average of 20.

Detailed forecasts are expected in the coming days.

For the next 6 months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for tropical cyclones inside PAR:

• November 2020 – 1 to 3
• December 2020 – 2 or 3
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1

Since October, La Niña has been underway, which means there is more rain than usual.

Then in November, the northeast monsoon began, signaling “surges of cold temperatures.”

PAGASA warned that La Niña may enhance the northeast monsoon, which could trigger floods and landslides. – Rappler.com