MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Paeng (Nalgae) slightly intensified late Friday afternoon, October 28, as it headed for the Northern Samar-Sorsogon-Albay area.

Paeng’s maximum sustained winds increased from 75 kilometers per hour to 85 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 pm on Friday. Its gustiness went up to 105 km/h from the previous 90 km/h.

Paeng is expected to strengthen into a severe tropical storm within 12 hours as it continues to move over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

By late Friday afternoon, the tropical storm was already 180 kilometers east of Catarman, Northern Samar, moving west northwest at a slightly slower 25 km/h from the previous 30 km/h. It is seen to maintain its direction until Sunday, October 30.

Paeng’s latest forecast track shows it might make landfall in Northern Samar or pass close to the province on Friday evening, then cross Bicol late Friday evening until Saturday morning, October 29.

Between Saturday afternoon and evening, Paeng could make another landfall in the east coast of Quezon, including Polillo Islands.

But “considering the southward shift in the forecast track, the landfall scenario may change in the succeeding bulletins,” PAGASA said.

As Paeng approaches land, tropical cyclone wind signals are also being upgraded for many areas. Below are the areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 as of 5 pm on Friday.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island
• Camarines Sur
• Camarines Norte
• Marinduque
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• southern part of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan)
• southeastern part of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, General Tinio, Gapan City, Cabiao, San Isidro, Peñaranda)
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Bulacan
• eastern part of Pampanga (Candaba, San Luis, San Simon, Apalit)
• northern and central parts of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas)
• Romblon
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami, Pastrana, Jaro, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga, Tabontabon, Tolosa)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• central and southern parts of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig)
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Mountain Province
• southern part of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia)
• La Union
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Pangasinan
• rest of Aurora
• rest of Pampanga
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• Calamian Islands
• Cuyo Islands
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands
• Bohol
• Negros Occidental
• Negros Oriental
• Guimaras
• Aklan
• Antique
• Capiz
• Iloilo
• Siquijor
• rest of Leyte
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• northern part of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, Tandag City, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag)
• Agusan del Norte
• northeastern part of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat)
• Camiguin
• eastern part of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Balingoan, Kinoguitan)

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 3 since Paeng is likely to strengthen into a severe tropical storm.

Paeng is also enhancing the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan, which is bringing strong winds to these areas:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan
• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Apayao

PAGASA also warned the public to brace for more rain ahead, with the weather bureau’s updated forecast showing torrential rain expected even in Metro Manila.

Friday evening, October 28, to early Saturday morning, October 29

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Bicol
• Eastern Visayas

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Quezon
• Mimaropa
• rest of Visayas
• Caraga
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Northern Mindanao

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Metro Manila
• Cagayan Valley
• rest of Calabarzon
• Bulacan
• Pampanga
• Aurora
• rest of Mindanao

Early Saturday morning, October 29, to Sunday morning, October 30

Heavy to torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• Aurora
• Bulacan
• Nueva Ecija
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of Bicol
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• rest of Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula

If there are “significant shifts” in Paeng’s track and intensity, areas covered by PAGASA’s rainfall forecast may be updated.

Rain from Paeng caused deadly floods and landslides on Friday.

PAGASA also warned that there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges up to 2 meters high, which may cause floods in the “low-lying and exposed coastal areas” of the following:

• Bicol
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• eastern part of Aurora
• northern and eastern parts of Northern Samar
• eastern part of Eastern Samar

Due to both Paeng and the northeast monsoon, a new gale warning was issued at 5 pm on Friday, covering these seaboards:

• eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas (Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, southern coast of Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran) – very rough to high seas, waves 4.5 to 6.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon (eastern coast of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora) – very rough seas, waves 4.5 to 6 meters high
• northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, northern coast of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales) – rough to very rough seas, waves 3.1 to 5.5 meters high
• eastern seaboard of Mindanao (eastern coast of Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, eastern coast of Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, eastern coast of Davao Oriental) – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

“Rough to high sea conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside,” PAGASA said.

Paeng is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the fourth for October. PAGASA earlier said there may be up to four tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com