MANILA, Philippines – With Typhoon Karding (Noru) still rapidly intensifying, the weather bureau warned that the possibility of it making landfall as a super typhoon is now “increasingly likely.”

In its 5 am bulletin on Sunday, September 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Karding’s maximum sustained winds further increased to 155 kilometers per hour, from 140 km/h just three hours earlier. Its gustiness is now up to 190 km/h from 170 km/h.

Under PAGASA’s classification, updated back in March, a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

Karding was last spotted 285 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, moving west southwest at 25 km/h. It gradually accelerated in the early hours of Sunday.

It is expected to make landfall in the northern part of Quezon or the southern part of Aurora on Sunday evening. But PAGASA also said it is not ruling out the possibility of the typhoon making landfall in Quezon’s Polillo Islands in the afternoon.

After hitting land, Karding will cross Central Luzon for the rest of Sunday evening until early Monday morning, September 26, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea via Zambales or Pangasinan. It could weaken during this period, but it is highly likely to remain a typhoon, PAGASA said.

Here is the weather bureau’s latest rainfall forecast for Karding:

Early Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon, September 25

Moderate to heavy rain

• Isabela
• Polillo Islands
• Catanduanes
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• mainland Cagayan
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Aurora
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• rest of Bicol

Early Sunday afternoon, September 25, to early Monday morning, September 26

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Nueva Ecija
• Bulacan
• Aurora
• Rizal
• northern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Mountain Province
• Pangasinan
• Cavite
• Laguna
• central part of Quezon
• Camarines Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Marinduque
• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Bicol

Early Monday morning to early Monday afternoon, September 26

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Zambales
• Bataan
• Pampanga
• Bulacan

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Metro Manila
• Pangasinan
• Cavite
• Occidental Mindoro
• rest of Central Luzon

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Calabarzon

PAGASA emphasized that scattered to widespread floods and landslides are possible.

Karding is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which may bring rain to the Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon, especially their western sections.

In terms of winds, these are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Sunday:

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• central and southern parts of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora, Dipaculao)
• extreme northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Islands
• eastern part of Nueva Ecija (Gapan City, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, General Tinio, Palayan City, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Cabanatuan City, San Leonardo)
• eastern part of Bulacan (Norzagaray, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat, San Rafael, San Ildefonso, San Miguel)
• northern part of Rizal (Rodriguez, Tanay)
• northern part of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones)
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• rest of Bulacan
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• rest of Aurora
• Metro Manila
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Laguna
• rest of Rizal
• northern and central parts of Quezon (Mauban, Calauag, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Sampaloc, Lucban, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Pitogo, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tiaong, San Antonio, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Buenavista)
• rest of Camarines Norte
• northern part of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Pamplona, Pasacao, San Fernando, Pili, Minalabac, Ocampo, Tigaon, Cabusao, Magarao, Gainza, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Naga City, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagñay)
• Catanduanes

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• southern part of Cagayan (Tuao, Solana, Enrile, Tuguegarao City, Iguig, Peñablanca)
• rest of Isabela
• southern part of Apayao (Conner)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• southern part of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, Batac City, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos)
• Ilocos Sur
• rest of Quezon
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz) including Lubang Islands
• northern part of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan)
• Marinduque
• rest of Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Burias Island
• Ticao Island

PAGASA expects to raise Signal No. 4 in its next bulletin at 8 am.

If Karding becomes a super typhoon, Signal No. 5 would be the highest possible wind signal.

Meanwhile, PAGASA issued a new gale warning at 5 am, covering the following seaboards:

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes) – very rough to high seas, waves 4.1 to 7 meters high, risky for all vessels
• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela), western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, western coast of Batangas), western seaboards of Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon (Pangasinan, Occidental Mindoro) – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high, fishing boats should not sail

Karding and the enhanced southwest monsoon will also cause moderate to rough seas in the northern and western seaboards of Luzon that are not under any gale warning, with waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, and in the western seaboard of Visayas, where waves will be 1.2 to 2.5 meters high. These conditions may be risky for small vessels.

The weather bureau also warned that the combined effects of storm surges and high waves breaking along the coast may cause flooding in the moderate- to high-risk coastal areas of the following provinces:

• Aurora
• Quezon (east coast, including Polillo Islands)
• Camarines Norte

Karding could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Monday.

Karding is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022.

It is also the third tropical cyclone for September, after Typhoon Inday (Muifa) and Super Typhoon Josie (Nanmadol). Inday and Josie did not make landfall in the country.

PAGASA expects 7 to 11 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from September 2022 to February 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• September 2022 – 2 or 3
• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com