election surveys

SWS survey puts Sara Duterte, Raffy Tulfo as 2028 presidential front-runners

Dwight de Leon

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SWS survey puts Sara Duterte, Raffy Tulfo as 2028 presidential front-runners

Inoue Jaena/Rappler; Voltaire F. Domingo/Senate PRIB

Former vice president Leni Robredo places third in the commissioned Social Weather Stations survey

MANILA, Philippines – Pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS) confirmed on Monday, June 12, the veracity of a commissioned survey where respondents said Vice President Sara Duterte is the “best leader to succeed President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2028.”

Trailing Duterte was broadcaster-turned-senator Raffy Tulfo, while former vice president Leni Robredo placed third.

The front-runners in this SWS survey, conducted from April 15 to 18, were as follows:

  • Sara Duterte: 28%
  • Raffy Tulfo: 11%
  • Leni Robredo: 6%
  • Rodrigo Duterte: 3%
  • Manny Pacquiao: 2%

Each receiving 1% were senators Robin Padilla and Imee Marcos, former Manila mayor Isko Moreno, and even President Marcos and congressman Sandro Marcos, who are both constitutionally barred from seeking the presidency in 2028.

Marcos is prohibited from seeking a second term while his 29-year-old son, Sandro, will not have met by then the minimum age of 40 for presidential candidates.

SWS said the nationwide survey used face-to-face computer-assisted personal interviews for 1,200 adults, and had a sampling error margin of ±3% for national percentages, and ±6% each for Metro Manila, balance of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

The survey was commissioned by a certain Arnel Ty, but it is unclear if this is the same person as the former party-list lawmaker.

Front-runners for 2025 midterms

Ty also commissioned a survey to get the pulse of the public ahead of the 2025 midterm elections.

The top answers for the senatorial race were:

  • Manny Pacquiao: 7%
  • Bong Revilla: 6%
  • Tito Sotto: 5%
  • Bong Go: 4%
  • Manny Villar: 4%
  • Lito Lapid: 3%
  • Bato Dela Rosa: 3%
  • Imee Marcos: 3%
  • Erwin Tulfo: 2%
  • Rodrigo Duterte: 2%
  • Panfilo Lacson: 2%
  • Pia Cayetano: 2%

Robredo, whom 6% of respondents preferred to succeed Marcos in 2028, got only 1% in the senatorial preference survey.

SWS used the same methodology as the one in the 2028 presidential race, and had the same margin of error.

Because the survey was unaided, senators who are either term-limited or not up for reelection in 2025 also came up in the results. In fact, senators Tulfo and Padilla were picked by 28% and 21% of the respondents, respectively.

The full results can be accessed here and here. – Rappler.com

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Dwight de Leon

Dwight de Leon is a multimedia reporter who covers President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Malacañang, and the Commission on Elections for Rappler.