Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Depression Kabayan weakens into LPA but redevelopment possible

Acor Arceo

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Tropical Depression Kabayan weakens into LPA but redevelopment possible

LPA. Satellite image of the low pressure area that used to be Tropical Depression Kabayan (Jelawat), as of December 18, 2023, 5 pm.


The low pressure area that used to be Tropical Depression Kabayan (Jelawat) is still bringing rain to parts of Mindanao and the Visayas on Monday, December 18

MANILA, Philippines – Kabayan (Jelawat) weakened from a tropical depression into a low pressure area (LPA) at 2:30 pm on Monday, December 18, while crossing Mindanao.

As of 4 pm on Monday, the LPA that used to be Kabayan was already in the vicinity of Impasug-ong, Bukidnon.

Kabayan earlier made landfall in Manay, Davao Oriental, at 9:30 am.

There are no more areas under tropical cyclone wind signals, but rain from the LPA will persist in the next 48 hours.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the following areas to stay on alert for floods and landslides, given heavy rain:

Monday afternoon, December 18, to Tuesday afternoon, December 19

  • 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental
  • 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, southern parts of Samar and Eastern Samar, rest of Caraga

Tuesday afternoon, December 19, to Wednesday afternoon, December 20

  • 50-100 mm: mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Kalayaan Islands

The shear line is also bringing rain to Camarines Norte, Quezon, Aurora, Cagayan, and Isabela on Monday. Floods and landslides remain possible in these provinces.

Chart, Plot, Map

PAGASA expects the LPA to emerge over the Sulu Sea by Monday evening, where it could “reorganize and redevelop into a tropical depression.”

Then the weather system is projected to move across the Sulu Sea, south of Palawan’s Cagayancillo Islands, before crossing the central or southern part of Palawan by Tuesday morning or afternoon, December 19.

Afterwards, it may emerge over the West Philippine Sea, then pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, December 20.


Meanwhile, the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will continue to bring gusty conditions to most of Luzon and the Visayas until Tuesday.

Also due to the surge of the northeast monsoon, a new gale warning was issued at 5 pm on Monday. Travel remains risky for small vessels in these seaboards:

  • seaboard of Northern Luzon – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
  • eastern and central seaboards of the Visayas – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high
  • eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

Moderate to rough seas will also persist in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboard of the Visayas. PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Kabayan was the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. –

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.