MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Neneng will be bringing torrential rain to parts of Northern Luzon, the weather bureau warned on Saturday morning, October 15.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 11 am on Saturday that Neneng was located 510 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan, still over the Philippine Sea.

The tropical depression is now moving west northwest, maintaining its speed of 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, but may intensify into a tropical storm on Saturday.

Neneng is still projected to make landfall in or pass very close to Babuyan Islands or Batanes on Sunday morning or afternoon, October 16. During this time, it may further strengthen into a severe tropical storm.

Below is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for Neneng.

Until Saturday evening, October 15

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Ilocos Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• northern part of Isabela
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Ilocos Region

Sunday, October 16

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Batanes
• northern part of mainland Cagayan
• Babuyan Islands
• Ilocos Norte

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Ilocos Sur
• rest of mainland Cagayan

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• northern part of Isabela
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Ilocos Region

Areas affected by Neneng must watch out for possible floods and landslides.

The weather bureau also said the trough or extension of the tropical depression “and the convergence of its circulation with the southwesterly winds” could bring occasional rain to the western parts of Mimaropa and Western Visayas. A separate weather advisory may be issued.

Meanwhile, these are the areas where Signal No. 1 is raised as of 11 am on Saturday:

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Isabela (Santa Maria, San Pablo, Maconacon)
• Apayao
• northern part of Abra (Tineg)
• Ilocos Norte

Strong winds are expected in areas under Signal No. 1.

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 3 since Neneng is projected to reach severe tropical storm status.

PAGASA added that there may be occasional gusts in Southern Luzon and the Visayas due to the convergence between Neneng’s circulation and the southwesterly winds.

The gale warning issued at 5 am on Saturday also remains in effect. The warning, due to both Neneng and the northeasterly surface windflow, covers these seaboards:

• northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, northern coast of Ilocos Norte) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 3.1 to 5 meters high
• western seaboard of Northern Luzon (Ilocos Sur, western coast of Ilocos Norte) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The weather bureau added that the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow and Neneng may cause moderate to rough seas in the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon. Waves could be 2 to 3.5 meters high, making conditions risky for small vessels.

Neneng may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday, October 17, as it shifts southwest “in response to an arriving northeasterly surge,” PAGASA said.

On its way out of PAR on Monday, Neneng may also further intensify into a typhoon.

Neneng is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the second for October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1
• March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com