MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Karding, which now has the international name Noru, slightly intensified on Friday afternoon, September 23.

Karding’s maximum sustained winds increased from 65 kilometers per hour to 75 km/h, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm on Friday. Its gustiness is now up to 90 km/h from the previous 80 km/h.

Since Karding is projected to keep intensifying over the Philippine Sea, it is now likely to make landfall and cross land as a severe tropical storm. Under PAGASA’s classification, a severe tropical storm has maximum sustained winds ranging from 89 to 117 km/h.

As of Friday afternoon, Karding was located 970 kilometers east of Northern Luzon. It slowed down, moving west at 15 km/h from the previous 25 km/h.

Based on Karding’s latest track and speed, it could make landfall in the east coast of Northern Luzon or Aurora on Sunday morning or afternoon, September 25. Then it may cross Northern Luzon throughout Sunday before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

PAGASA expanded its rainfall forecast for Karding on Friday afternoon, warning the following areas to brace for rain:

Saturday evening, September 24, until early Sunday morning, September 25

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Batanes
• Cagayan
• Isabela
• northern part of Aurora

Rest of Sunday, September 25, until early Monday morning, September 26

Heavy to intense rain

• northern part of Aurora
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Cagayan
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• northern part of Zambales
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• rest of Central Luzon

Karding is also expected to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which may bring occasional rain to most of Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, and the Visayas starting Sunday.

Meanwhile, the eastern parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon could be placed under tropical cyclone wind signals as early as Friday evening, with strong winds expected during the weekend.

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 3, assuming that Karding eventually intensifies into a severe tropical storm.

As for coastal conditions, the northeasterlies may cause moderate to rough seas in the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon by Saturday, September 24. Waves will be 1.2 to 3.5 meters high.

Then on Sunday, rough to very rough seas are expected in the eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon due to Karding. Waves will be 2.8 to 4.5 meters high, which may be risky for small vessels.

Karding could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday, September 26.

Karding is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022.

It is also the third tropical cyclone for September, after Typhoon Inday (Muifa) and Super Typhoon Josie (Nanmadol). Inday and Josie did not make landfall in the country.

PAGASA expects 7 to 11 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from September 2022 to February 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• September 2022 – 2 or 3
• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com