MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Neneng (Nesat) was threatening the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area late Saturday evening, October 15, the weather bureau said.

Neneng was already 140 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, or 145 kilometers east southeast of Calayan, Cagayan, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Saturday.

The tropical storm slightly accelerated, moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour from the previous 15 km/h.

It is still expected to pass very close to or make landfall in Babuyan Islands or Batanes between late Saturday evening and Sunday morning, October 16, then keep moving over the Luzon Strait until Monday morning, October 17.

Neneng maintained its strength late Saturday evening, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

PAGASA said Neneng could intensify into a severe tropical storm within 24 hours after crossing the Luzon Strait. But the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Neneng becoming a severe tropical storm in the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area.

Rain will persist in Northern Luzon, which means floods and landslides remain possible. This is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for Sunday:

Until Sunday morning, October 16

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• northern part of Ilocos Sur
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• northern part of Isabela

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Ilocos Sur
• rest of Isabela
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region

Rest of Sunday, October 16

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Ilocos Sur
• Abra

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• rest of Ilocos Sur

The weather bureau also said the trough or extension of the tropical storm “and the convergence of its circulation with the induced southwesterly winds” could bring occasional rain to the following areas:

• western part of Mimaropa
• western part of Visayas
• northern and western parts of Mindanao

The same areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Saturday.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• northern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Lagayan)
• Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• northern and central parts of Isabela (Santa Maria, San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santo Tomas, Quezon, Delfin Albano, Mallig, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Aurora, Luna, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Dinapigue, Cauayan City)
• Kalinga
• rest of Abra
• Mountain Province
• northern part of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista, Mayoyao, Hungduan, Banaue)
• northern and central parts of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, San Ildefonso, San Vicente, Santa Catalina, Bantay, Vigan City, Santa, Caoayan, Narvacan, Nagbukel, Santa Maria, San Esteban, Santiago, Burgos, Banayoyo, Lidlidda, San Emilio, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Galimuyod, Candon City, Santa Lucia, Salcedo, Cervantes, Suyo, Sigay, Santa Cruz)

PAGASA said Signal No. 3 could be the highest wind signal, if Neneng becomes a severe tropical storm.

The weather bureau added that there may be occasional gusts in most of Southern Luzon and the Visayas, as well as the eastern parts of Central Luzon, due to the convergence between Neneng’s circulation and the induced southwesterly winds.

As for coastal conditions, the gale warning issued at 5 pm on Saturday remains in effect. Seas are rough to very rough in these seaboards due to Neneng and the northeasterly surface windflow:

• seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte) – waves 3.4 to 5 meters high
• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Isabela) – waves 3.1 to 4.5 meters high
• western seaboard of Northern Luzon (Ilocos Sur, La Union) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The weather bureau added that the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow and Neneng may cause moderate to rough seas in the eastern and western seaboards of Central Luzon as well as the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. Waves could be 2 to 3.5 meters high, making conditions risky for small vessels.

Neneng is seen to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

Outside PAR, it may strengthen further into a typhoon.

Neneng is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the second for October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1
• March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com