The Marcos government reported on March 5 that there was an uptick of inflation, after four months of decline.

In February, inflation climbed again to 3.4%, and it’s because of food prices, particularly rice.

Rice inflated by almost 24% from last year. That’s the highest rice inflation in 15 years according to government statisticians.

Figure 1 below captures the singularly large role of rice among all other food categories. Meat and fish inflation are both declining. Vegetables are actually becoming cheaper. It’s only rice that’s causing trouble these days.

Figure 1.

Quite obviously, the intense dry spell caused by El Niño is driving down rice production. Reports indicate that farmers all over the country are adapting by planting alternative crops, shifting the cropping calendar, and installing water pumps.

Lower production tends to stoke prices. Figure 2 shows that well-milled rice is now averaging at P55.93 per kilo, while special rice is at P64.4 per kilo. But much more disturbing is the even steeper rise of farmgate prices of palay.

Applying the rule of thumb that retail rice prices are about twice the farmgate prices of palay, we’re in for even higher retail prices in coming months.

Figure 2.

This is significant since rice occupies a huge part of Filipinos’ food budget. This makes rice a political commodity in the Philippines.

How did Marcos prepare?

Of course there are also global factors behind the rising rice prices.

Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that overall rice prices have risen globally. Their latest average rice price index is 13% up from January 2023, and is also at its highest since August 2008 when another rice price shock hit the world.

But we should also examine what the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has done to prepare for El Niño. Let’s look at the timeline.

As early as March 2023, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) already warned that “El Niño will likely develop in Jul-Aug-Sept (JAS) 2023 season and may persist until 2024.”

In April 2023, Marcos, as concurrent agriculture secretary, already supposedly tasked agencies to prepare for El Niño.

In May 2023, Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. reported to the President that a task force, rather weirdly led by the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), has been formed to “implement measures to mitigate the impact of El Niño on the country’s economy, natural resources, environment, climate change, disaster response, and peace and order.”

But this initiative kind of stalled.

Fast-forward to December 2023, Marcos claimed that he already created under his office a “Task Force El Niño.” Later that month, however, the new defense secretary, Gilbert Teodoro, admitted that Marcos has yet to sign an executive order formalizing the task force.

Alas, it was only on January 19, 2024 that Marcos finally signed Executive Order 53 “Reactivating and Reconstituting the Task Force El Niño.” This is almost a year since PAGASA first raised its El Niño alert.

Marcos could have signed an executive order formalizing the El Niño task force as early as March or April 2023. But no. He sat on it.

It’s not as if he had to reinvent the wheel. The executive order he signed literally just “reactivated” the old El Niño task force that was set up by former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo back in 2001.

That Arroyo El Niño task force was sensibly led by the agriculture secretary. But rather weirdly, the Marcos task force is to be led by the defense secretary. Why? Are they planning to bring El Niño to war and shoot it down? This kind of reminds me of the way former president Duterte militarized the response to COVID-19.

What is this belated Marcos task force tasked to do?

First, it will be revising and updating the Strategic El Niño National Action Plan, which “shall serve as the comprehensive disaster preparedness and rehabilitation plan for the El Niño phenomenon.”

Second, it must implement solutions and programs for water security, food security, energy security, health, and safety.

Third, it must coordinate with all agencies concerned with the completion of ongoing water infrastructure projects no later than end-April 2024.

Fourth, it must conduct a “massive information campaign” about El Niño.

Fifth, it must submit a monthly report to the President about the implementation of El Niño programs and policies.

Sixth, it must create an “El Niño Online Platform” serving as a “centralized repository for a wide range of data, research, and information concerning El Niño, such as interactive maps and visualizations, as well as well-informed, data-driven plans and programs related to El Niño.”

How on earth can they do all that when El Niño is already on our doorsteps? Such delayed preparation is not unlike securing the roof or evacuating your family just when a Yolanda-type typhoon has already arrived.

Poor planning begets casualties. And I’m afraid the Marcos administration’s procrastination will make this El Niño season a particularly devastating one.

Already, El Niño is estimated to have cost the Philippines’ agricultural sector more than P1 billion. Expect that number to grow in earnest in the coming months. – Rappler.com

JC Punongbayan, PhD is an assistant professor at the UP School of Economics and the author of False Nostalgia: The Marcos “Golden Age” Myths and How to Debunk Them. JC’s views are independent of his affiliations. Follow him on Twitter (@jcpunongbayan) and Usapang Econ Podcast.