The state weather bureau said early Tuesday, July 20, that there was already an “increasing likelihood” of Signal No. 1 being raised in Batanes and Babuyan Islands due to Severe Tropical Storm Fabian (In-fa).

Fabian was located 1,035 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon before dawn on Tuesday, still slowly moving west northwest.

The severe tropical storm maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

“Residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins,” the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 am bulletin.

Fabian and Cempaka, the tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), are both still enhancing the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.

Cempaka has since strengthened from a severe tropical storm into a typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gustiness of up to 150 km/h. It was located 975 kilometers west of extreme Northern Luzon early Tuesday, continuing to move away from the Philippines.

Monsoon rain is expected to hit the following areas on Tuesday – a regular holiday in the Philippines in commemoration of Eid’l Adha:

• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Palawan

Scattered rain and thunderstorms triggered by the southwest monsoon will also continue in these regions:

• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• Western Visayas

The southwest monsoon is affecting coastal conditions as well. Travel will be risky for small vessels in the seaboards below, as waters are rough to very rough with waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high.

• seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• western seaboard of Palawan (including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands) and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands)

Mainly for the rest of Tuesday, Fabian is expected to keep moving west northwest. Then it could head west starting Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, July 21 – around the same time it may strengthen into a typhoon.

Fabian may pass close to or make landfall in Japan’s Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands on Thursday, July 22, until early Friday morning, July 23. It could also reach its peak intensity of 150 km/h on Thursday.

By Friday evening or early Saturday morning, July 24, Fabian may make landfall as well in the northern part of Taiwan. This would cause gradual weakening, said PAGASA, due to Taiwan’s rugged terrain. During that time, Fabian might also exit PAR.

Finally, outside PAR, Fabian is projected to make another landfall in the southeastern part of mainland China on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, July 25. “Rapid weakening post-landfall over mainland China is expected beginning on Saturday evening,” added PAGASA.

PAGASA

Fabian is the Philippines’ sixth tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for July.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the rest of 2021, these are PAGASA’s estimates per month:

• July – 1 to 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

The rainy season has been underway since early June. – Rappler.com