PAGASA forecasts

New LPA outside PAR might be Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2024

Acor Arceo

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New LPA outside PAR might be Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2024

LPA. Satellite image of the low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of May 22, 2024, 8 am.


If the low pressure area becomes a tropical depression inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it would be given the local name Aghon

MANILA, Philippines – A cloud cluster outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a low pressure area (LPA) at 8 am on Wednesday, May 22.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 172nd Climate Forum on Wednesday morning that the LPA was located 1,255 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao.

It could enter PAR on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, May 23.

PAGASA’s initial forecast shows the LPA might affect or hit land in the Bicol-Eastern Visayas area by late Friday, May 24, or Saturday, May 25, then eventually emerge over the waters east of Luzon.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the LPA may be seen in Bicol and Eastern Visayas starting Friday. The weather bureau warned of possible flash floods and landslides during the weekend.

PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of the LPA developing into a tropical depression around Sunday, May 26, or Monday, May 27, although this is “less likely,” so far.

If the LPA becomes a tropical depression, it would be given the local name Aghon as the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2024.

Another scenario shows the LPA could just recurve over the Philippine Sea, near the Bicol-Eastern Visayas area, then develop into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday as it stays offshore.

PAGASA previously estimated there may be one or two tropical cyclones in May.


The Philippines’ warm and dry season is already winding down, though dozens of areas are still experiencing heat index levels 40°C and above.

The country’s rainy season usually begins in the second half of May or first half of June.

El Niño also continues to weaken and a transition to neutral conditions is expected. But there is a 60% chance of La Niña developing in the June-August period. –

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.